Reza Pahlavi’s supporters in Iran are turning against him
Two weeks into the US-Israeli war on Iran, a growing number of Iranians who saw Reza Pahlavi as an alternative to the ruling establishment say they are losing faith in the exiled opposition figure.
For some, the turning point came before the war broke out, when Pahlavi urged Iranians to rise up against their rulers despite the dangers of a ferocious crackdown.
For others, it is his latest call for demonstrations during the traditional Persian festival of Chaharshanbe Suri, set to be held on Tuesday.
Dina, a 39-year-old resident of Tehran, said she once believed the son of Iran’s last monarch might be able to unite the country’s fragmented opposition. Now she no longer feels that way.
“I wish he had even a fraction of his father’s political judgment,” she said.
“Or even the wisdom of his mother. If he did, he would know how to use the enormous energy among people who oppose this government.”
Dina and all other Iranians Middle East Eye spoke to are identified by pseudonyms for security reasons.
She was among those who took part in the nationwide protests in January, which were encouraged by Pahlavi and the Israeli and US governments.
“At that time I hoped he could lead the movement,” she said. “But now I think differently.”
Dina witnessed the violent crackdown on the protests firsthand. While authorities said more than 3,000 were killed when security forces confronted protesters, human rights groups have put that number at 7,000 people and even higher.
“Two months ago thousands of people listened to him and went to the streets,” Dina said. “What did they get? Bullets.”
A call for protest during wartime
Pahlavi took to X on Sunday to once again urge Iranians to take to the streets, using Chaharshanbe Suri - an ancient celebration ahead of the Persian new year – to mobilise the public.
He suggested that the traditional festival is hated by the Islamic Republic, and so celebrating it would challenge the authorities.
Notably, reports have suggested that Israel and the United States hoped their attacks on Iran’s leadership - including the killing of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei on 28 February - would prompt a popular revolution. Yet there is no sign of that materialising.
Normally, Chaharshanbe Suri fills Iranian cities with crowds celebrating on the streets, accompanied by bonfires and fireworks.
But this year the situation is very different.
'Two months ago thousands of people listened to him and went to the streets. What did they get? Bullets'
- Dina, Tehran resident
For more than two weeks, Iranian cities have been subjected to Israeli and US air strikes. According to the Red Crescent, more than 1,500 civilians have been killed.
In such circumstances, many Iranians say the call for street celebrations feels detached from the fear dominating daily life.
Majid, a 21-year-old student in Tehran, says he no longer sees Pahlavi as a leader.
During the January protests, Majid says he watched a close friend die after security forces opened fire.
“My friend was shot right in front of my eyes,” he said quietly. “I still cannot process it.”
While he blames the Iranian authorities for the killing, he also believes opposition figures raised expectations that never materialised.
“Now he tells people to go celebrate in the streets,” Majid said. “Does he even know what life is like here? People go to sleep not knowing if they will wake up alive in the morning.
“We are afraid every time we step outside that another air strike might hit somewhere nearby. And in this situation he says we should celebrate?” he added.
Expectations that never materialised
Pahlavi, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and US President Donald Trump have all been accused of misleading the Iranian public.
During the January protests, which were sparked by economic woes and spiralled into calls for the fall of the Islamic Republic, the three men hinted that help was on the way for demonstrators.
'He has made so many mistakes that criticising him no longer carries the same cost'
- Amir, resident of Gorgan in northern Iran
Yet, other than rumours of Israeli agents encouraging and even arming demonstrators on the ground, the protesters were left high and dry as the security forces moved in.
Morteza, 24, once strongly supported Pahlavi. He believed the opposition figure had a concrete plan to remove the authorities and unite the people.
“For many of us who were exhausted by the Islamic Republic, he looked like the only possible alternative,” he said.
During the protests, Morteza recalls, Pahlavi repeatedly encouraged people to take to the streets.
“He said help was on the way,” Morteza said. “He said he was preparing to return to Iran.”
At the time, Morteza said, some people genuinely believed Pahlavi might soon appear in Tehran - much as Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini returned from exile shortly before the 1979 revolution that removed Pahlavi’s father.
“We thought maybe his plane would land in Tehran in a few days,” he said. “We believed it.”
Shirin, a 43-year-old mother in Tehran, said she similarly initially believed Pahlavi must have had some kind of strategy.
“We were desperate,” she said. “We were tired of the Islamic Republic.”
She says many Iranians had already placed their hopes in different political alternatives over the years: reformists, former President Hassan Rouhani, and even the current administration of Masoud Pezeshkian. “All of it led nowhere,” she said.
So when Pahlavi spoke confidently about his plans and called on people to protest, she assumed he had a serious strategy.
“I even argued with my friends about it,” she said. Some of those friends warned her not to trust him.
“They told me: ‘Don’t you see the government kills people? Don’t you see he has no real understanding of Iran?’”
At the time, Shirin dismissed those warnings. “Now I realise they were right,” she said. “I was wrong.”
Long-time critics speak more openly
For others, the recent developments have reinforced doubts they always had about Pahlavi’s political leadership.
Amir, a 40-year-old resident of Gorgan in northern Iran, said critics of Pahlavi are now speaking more openly.
“In the past, if you criticised him, his supporters would immediately accuse you of being an agent of the Islamic Republic,” he said. “Now that atmosphere has changed.”
Amir believes Pahlavi’s political positions have often appeared inconsistent.
In recent months, the exiled opposition figure has at times urged the United States to support the Iranian people, while in other statements insisted that Iranians do not need foreign help.
Amir says such shifts reflect uncertainty about how international powers view Iran’s future.
“Whenever Donald Trump says something that suggests he does not take Pahlavi seriously, suddenly Pahlavi says Iranians do not need foreign support,” Amir said.
“But when he fears that foreign powers might negotiate with the current government or choose another option for Iran, he starts praising Israel and the United States again.”
Silence over civilian deaths
Pahlavi’s reaction to casualties during the war has also drawn controversy.
Since the beginning of the US-Israeli strikes, Pahlavi has posted condolences for American soldiers killed in attacks.
But critics say he did not publicly react to the deaths of civilians in Iran, including the scores of children killed when a school in the southern city of Minab was hit by a double-tap strike.
For Dina, the contrast was painful. “How can someone claim to represent the Iranian people and stay silent when children are killed?” she said.
“Yet he quickly sends condolences for foreign soldiers.”
'How can someone claim to represent the Iranian people and stay silent when children are killed?'
- Dina, Tehran resident
The debate over Pahlavi’s leadership is unfolding in an increasingly tense atmosphere inside Iran.
Iranian authorities have issued explicit warnings against new street protests.
Ahmad Reza Radan, the commander of Iran’s national police force, said on 11 March that security forces were “ready to pull the trigger” if people took to the streets at what he described as the enemy’s request.
He warned that anyone participating in such protests would be treated “like an enemy”.
Many Iranians say such threats make the idea of public demonstrations even more dangerous.
Despite the criticism, Pahlavi still retains support among some Iranians who see him as a possible figure for a transitional government if the Islamic Republic collapses.
But the mood among critics of the Islamic Republic appears increasingly divided.
Two trends seem to be emerging: some who once saw him as the only alternative are becoming disillusioned. Others who always doubted his leadership now feel more comfortable expressing their criticism.
Amir says the debate around Pahlavi has changed dramatically.
“He has made so many mistakes that criticising him no longer carries the same cost,” he said, pausing.
“Still, that doesn’t mean things are better. We are just stuck. Trapped in a dead end.”
This article was sourced from Middle East Eye.
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