Israel 'assessed Iranians would be slaughtered' if they rise up against Islamic Republic
Israel has privately assessed that Iranians would be "slaughtered" if they took to the streets against the Islamic Republic, despite Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu repeatedly calling for them to do so.
According to a State Department cable reviewed by the Washington Post, a number of Israeli officials privately admitted to their US counterparts that the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) had the "upper hand" and would quickly overwhelm them.
In spite of boasts from both the US and Israel, the officials conceded that the Islamic Republic was "not cracking” and was willing to “fight to the end" and any attempt by anti-government activists to take control would likely be a disaster.
The cable details meetings between American officials and senior members of Israel’s National Security Council, Ministry of Defence and Ministry of Foreign Affairs on Wednesday and Thursday.
Though Iranians inside and outside Iran have at various points been supportive of US and Israeli strikes against the Islamic Republic, the increasing civilian death toll and mixed messaging from the two countries has soured some of that fervour.
In a speech following the killing of Iranian security chief Ali Larijani on Tuesday, Netanyahu again called on opponents of the Islamic Republic to rise up against their government.
"We are undermining the regime in the hope of giving the people an opportunity to remove it," he said in a televised statement.
"It will not happen all at once, and it will not be easy. But if we persist, we will give them an opportunity to take their fate into their own hands."
However, his comments appear to contradict the assessment of his own officials, who were cited by the Washington Post as saying Iran's ability to launch ballistic missiles and drones "everywhere they want to" was proof of the state's resilience.
The Israelis also said that despite reports of his being wounded or out-of-action, new Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei was “still in charge” and “more aligned” with the IRGC than his father.
The failure of Iran's opposition to provide an organised front or project its influence inside the country since the beginning of the most recent war has been another factor.
Middle East Eye spoke to a number of Iranians inside the country earlier this week who had previously been supporters of monarchist leader Reza Pahlavi - arguably the most high-profile opposition figure - but had now lost faith in his ability to lead.
Pahlavi took to X on Sunday to urge Iranians to take to the streets, using Chaharshanbe Suri - an ancient celebration ahead of the Persian New Year – to mobilise the public.
But there has been little obvious response to his calls.
“My friend was shot right in front of my eyes,” Majid, a 21-year-old student in Tehran, told MEE. “I still cannot process it.
“Now he tells people to go celebrate in the streets - does he even know what life is like here? People go to sleep not knowing if they will wake up alive in the morning.
“We are afraid every time we step outside that another air strike might hit somewhere nearby. And in this situation he says we should celebrate?”
This article was sourced from Middle East Eye.
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