Cui Bono: Six months into the Gulf War

The war in the Gulf has entered a decisive phase. Six months from now, the strategic landscape will look markedly different, shaped not only by the immediate destruction but by the recalibration of alliances, energy markets, and global power balances. The question before us is simple yet profound: Cui bono? Who benefits from this conflagration, and who emerges diminished? The answer is neither uniform nor static. Gains are relative, losses are cumulative, and the balance of power is shifting in ways that demand sober recognition. Russia: The immediate beneficiary Russia is the clearest short-term winner. Elevated oil prices have delivered billions in windfall revenues, replenishing Moscow’s war chest and enabling it to sustain its campaign in Ukraine while projecting influence […]