Iran’s missile campaign exposed the limits of Western deterrence

On 28th February, 2026, Iran launched Operation “True Promise-4,” a wave of ballistic missiles and drones into Israeli airspace. The strikes were in response to the US and Israeli attacks on Iranian territory, which saturated the most heavily protected skies until even success became unaffordable for their adversaries. Iran went into the war with the most sophisticated ballistic missile arsenal in the Middle East, including the solid-fuel Fateh family, hypersonic-adjacent Fattah-1 and older Shahab-3 variants. It fired over one hundred heavy missiles in each wave; analysts called it “volumetric saturation”– overwhelming the target with more missiles than any interceptor network could handle. Israel’s Iron Dome, David’s Sling and long-range Arrow defence systems had created the most multi-layered air-defence system ever […]