Iran's MEK plots a US-backed path to power from exile in Albania
The war on Iran has given an opposition group that has long struggled for relevance in exile a chance to grab the mantle of history and present itself as a ready-made alternative to the Islamic Republic.
As Israel and the US began to strike Iran on 28 February, the Mujahedin-e Khalq (MEK) swung into action.
Maryam Rajavi, the group's 72-year-old leader, announced the formation of what she described as a provisional government tasked with overseeing the fall of the Iranian regime and its replacement with a democratic republic with her at the helm.
For more than a decade, 3,000 members of the MEK have lived in a small village outside Albania's capital Tirana, turning the Balkan country into an unlikely outpost of a distant conflict.
The group, founded as an Islamist-Marxist student militia in the 1960s, relocated to the village of Manze in 2013 when Albania agreed, at Washington’s request, to accept fighters previously based in Iraq.
Now, there is an opportunity that has long eluded the MEK, one that could lead it out of Albania and back into some kind of relevance.
The problem, analysts say, is that the group is far further away from power than it was during the 1979 revolution it played a significant role in.
“The MEK is not a serious alternative to the Islamic Republic. It is a thuggish and corrupt cult that is unpopular inside Iran,” said Thomas Juneau, a professor of Middle East studies at the University of Ottawa.
“As long as the Islamic Republic was firmly in power, it was mostly irrelevant for former US (and other western) politicians to support the MEK by attending its events,” he told Middle East Eye.
The US designated the MEK a terrorist organisation in 1997 before removing it from the list in 2012.
Despite the controversy surrounding the group, which was cracked down on by Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini after the revolution and went on to fight for Saddam Hussein's Iraq, the MEK gained international attention in 2002 when it revealed the existence of a previously undisclosed Iranian uranium-enrichment programme.
A role in the current conflict?
Iran has experienced repeated waves of protests in recent decades. Yet the opposition has remained fragmented, both inside and outside the country, with numerous ideological and political factions competing for influence.
The MEK, which began its life as a vehemently anti-American, anti-imperialist group, now stands out in part because of its willingness to cooperate with the US and Israel.
This alignment, analysts say, helps explain why it continues to attract attention despite its limited domestic popularity.
“This is not happening because people think the MEK will bring democracy or that they have any future,” said Sajjad Safaei, an expert on Iran and the Middle East.
“In some ways, because the MEK has no future, they are perfect for serving the interests of for instance the United States or Israel,” he told MEE.
The organisation remains highly structured and maintains networks among Persian-speaking activists.
Its Albanian compound reportedly houses media rooms and communication centres used to monitor Iranian developments and distribute content online.
“There is this running joke amongst Farsi speakers,” Safaei said. “That whenever you want to dismiss a Twitter or social media account, you always say, just remember that you're talking to an MEK account in Tirana.”
Beyond propaganda, analysts believe the group may play a role in shaping narratives supportive of western policy toward Iran.
Such activity can create what Safaei describes as a permissive climate that reinforces arguments for military action. But its potential utility may extend further.
“So sabotage, espionage, inciting violence, sabotage of nuclear installations, assassinations, they're probably very much involved there, I could imagine,” he said.
The MEK has also built a lobbying network in Washington.
Last year, supporters in Congress passed a resolution backing Rajavi’s “10-point plan” for Iran, which calls for the country to become a “democratic, secular and non-nuclear state”.
For Juneau, though, there is a critical distinction to make. While the group may be useful to outside powers, he argues, that does not mean it has a realistic political future inside Iran.
“It is crucial to distinguish that role from the delusion that it could play a constructive political role in a post-Islamic Republic Iran,” he said.
Gambit for power
For years the MEK has cultivated support among western politicians who see it as a useful instrument against Tehran.
Among those who have appeared at the group’s events are former British Prime Minister Liz Truss, former US Vice President Mike Pence, former senator Joe Lieberman, former national security adviser John Bolton, former House speaker Newt Gingrich and former New York mayor Rudy Giuliani.
Financial disclosures in the US show that some figures were paid substantial speaking fees. Bolton received $40,000 for a speech at a 2017 rally in Paris, while Pence was paid $190,000 for a speech delivered in Albania in 2022.
“Now that the fall of the Islamic Republic is conceivable, it becomes essential for western governments to take the issue of a post-Islamic Republic Iran seriously,” said Juneau.
The renewed speculation about so-called "regime change" has also intensified rivalries among exiled Iranian opposition figures, and the knives are out.
Giuliani, a close ally of the MEK, attacked Reza Pahlavi on X on 1 March.
“Reza Pahlavi is the heir to a regime of corruption and brutality imposed by outsiders on the Iranian people,” Giuliani wrote, adding that the son of the shah had lived “a life of a self-proclaimed 'prince' supported by the money stolen from the people”.
Mike Pompeo, a former US secretary of state, also weighed in, writing that “Iran's democratic opposition is ready to step up and lead”, while quoting Rajavi.
Even so, Washington has not officially endorsed the group.
“The past shows ample precedents of US support for groups with little or no legitimacy in countries it invades can have negative consequences,” Juneau said.
This article was sourced from Middle East Eye.
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