How Spain's memory of Iraq shaped Sanchez's response to war on Iran

On 4 March, just days after the US and Israel attacked Iran, Spain's prime minister addressed the nation.

“The position of the government of Spain can be summed up in four words,” Pedro Sanchez said. “No to the war.”

While other European leaders were working out how to respond to strikes widely questioned under international law, Sanchez's concise response stood out for its clarity.

If his choice of words appeared to echo the Spanish left's opposition to the war in Iraq, his next sentence made clear that the memory of that conflict was on his mind.

“The world, Europe, and Spain have been here before,” he said. “Twenty-three years ago, another US administration dragged us into a war in the Middle East.”

Last week, he evoked the same theme. “This mess in Iran might end soon,” Sanchez said. “Or perhaps the nightmare of Iraq will repeat itself, but this time on a much larger scale.”

The 2003 invasion of Iraq is a painful memory in Spain, with the government's backing of the war a defining episode in the country’s modern history that continues to shape public attitudes to foreign military intervention.

Today, the war in Iran is already having domestic political consequences in Spain. It might even be a key factor in deciding the outcome of next year’s general election. 

Sanchez has backed up his rhetorical opposition to the war with concrete action. On Monday, Spain closed its airspace to US planes involved in attacks on Iran, having already ruled out the use of military bases in the country.

This kind of resistance has infuriated US President Donald Trump, who has threatened to cut off all trade with Spain and called the country's leadership “not so good”.

But the Sanchez approach, which initially marked Spain out as an outlier in Europe, is gaining traction across the continent. On the same day Spain closed its airspace to US war planes, Italy’s defence minister, Guido Crosetto, said: “We did not support this war, and no one asked for our opinion.”

And again, on Monday, British Prime Minister Keir Starmer, who has allowed the US to use UK bases for the war, said his country was not “getting dragged into the Middle East conflict”.

'No a la guerra'

“The 'No to the war' slogan has multiple meanings,” explained Pablo Simon, a political scientist at Carlos III University of Madrid. “It is not only about pacifism, but also about a decision that went against the majority of Spaniards, which was seen as violating international law.”

In 2003, the conservative government of Jose Maria Aznar chose to join the so-called “coalition of the willing” and support the US invasion of Iraq.

“What is striking is the level of involvement of the conservative government at the time in explicitly supporting the position put forward by George W Bush,” Simon told Middle East Eye. “Namely, the existence of weapons of mass destruction in Iraq, which was used to justify the legitimacy of a preventive war against the country.”

The decision by Aznar's government sparked mass protests, the largest of which brought at least 660,000 people onto the streets of Madrid. It was likely the biggest protest Spain had seen since the death of dictator Francisco Franco in 1975.

“All the polling from the time found around 90 percent of the population was against the military intervention,” said Simon. “It was not seen as legitimate. More broadly, Spain has a long pacifist tradition, and within the left there is also a touch of anti-American sentiment.”

The anger deepened in 2004 when the country suffered a series of coordinated train bombings carried out by Islamist extremists in protest at Spain’s involvement in the invasions of Afghanistan and Iraq. 

The attacks, including one at Madrid's Atocha station, killed 191 people and injured at least 1,800. Coming just days before an election, the government initially blamed the bombings on the Basque separatists, ETA.

Aznar's government was voted out by a Spanish public furious at its handling of the attacks and its decision to join American wars, which many now felt had made them less safe at home.

Iran war comes to Europe

In his address, in which he ruled out joining the war in Iran, Pedro Sanchez said the war in Iraq had made Europe less safe.

“It triggered the greatest wave of insecurity our continent has experienced since the fall of the Berlin Wall,” he said.

According to the latest polling, a majority of Spaniards have reached the same conclusion. A poll by 40dB for the El Pais newspaper at the beginning of the war on Iran showed more than two-thirds of Spaniards were against the US and Israeli military intervention. 

'Sanchez knows he is using this as a tool to build soft power globally and to position himself as a leader who stands up to Donald Trump'

- Pablo Simon, Spanish analyst

Opposition to the war is especially high among left-wing voters. On the right, support for military intervention is greater, but even the far-right Vox party is split, with only 53 percent in favour of the war.

This split opinion on the right helps explain why the opposition leader of the centre-right PP, Alberto Nunez Feijoo, took almost three weeks to decide his stance on the Iran war. 

Having initially backed the US-Israeli strikes, Feijoo later shifted tone, calling for restraint and a return to negotiations. Sanchez appears decisive by contrast and is trying to turn it to his advantage politically.

Speaking in parliament last week, he accused opposition parties of enabling the conflict through their stance.

“The PP and Vox have contributed with their support and their silence to this absolute disaster of the Iran war. Staying silent in the face of an illegal war is not prudence. It is an act of cowardice,” Sanchez said.

Feijoo hit back, accusing the prime minister of using the war in Iran and foreign policy in general to “conceal his failing project”.

Sanchez’s government - his third - is a minority coalition made up of his own Spanish Socialist Workers' Party (PSOE), the left-wing Sumar alliance and a number of independent cabinet ministers. 

At home, it has been under pressure from parliamentary paralysis and corruption investigations. A month ago, before the war on Iran began, Sanchez’s party lost seats in an election in the Aragon region. 

But foreign policy, particularly following the advent of this war, has offered the Spanish leader breathing space, according to Simon.

“Sanchez knows he is using this as a tool to build soft power globally and to position himself as a leader who stands up to Donald Trump, aligning himself with a kind of progressive international movement,” the political scientist told MEE.

The prime minister did something similar when Spain recognised a Palestinian state during the European election campaign of 2024. That move aligned him with his left-wing bloc and the majority of Spaniards. 

Spain will hold general elections next year, but Simon said it was too early to predict whether the war in Iran will have a positive impact at the ballot box for Sanchez.

The prime minister's Socialist Party gained one or two points in the polls after recognition of Palestine, but it wasn't enough of a boost to suggest a shift in electoral outcome.

Sanchez stance supported in Spain

That said, some voters who see themselves as being to the left of Sanchez are impressed with his stance on Iran.

“I’m very proud of Spain,” a voter called Jordi said while out on a morning stroll in Almeria province, in the country’s southern Andalusia region. 

“I’m even thinking about putting up a flag,” he joked, adding that he would consider voting for Sanchez in the upcoming Andalusian elections on 17 May.

The economic impact of the war could prove decisive politically. “When the economy deteriorates, governments tend to be punished,” said Simon. “It’s far from clear that this war won’t end up having a negative impact on Sanchez because of the economic fallout.”

Spain depends on imports for roughly 70 percent of its energy, tourism accounts for around 13 percent of GDP and petrol prices have climbed about 10 percent.

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While the Financial Times recently noted that Spain “is a role model in weathering Iranian oil shocks” because its “speedy rollout of renewable has put a lid on electricity bills”, the country will still be exposed to rising fuel costs and falling visitor numbers.

Juan Cortes, a travel agent based in Almeria, said he is already seeing the impact of cancelled flights and tourists deciding not to travel this summer.

“The petrol price affects everything,” he said. “Package holidays involve planes, hotels, transport. Cruises - imagine how much fuel they need.”

Industry experts at Mabrian have predicted tourism might still thrive in Spain this year, with travellers seeing it as a safer option than Dubai, Egypt or Turkey.

If a weakening economy does hurt Sanchez politically, he may still be remembered for his response to Iran, when he followed public opinion and international law rather than a US president.