Why Iran could be the one to finally kill Netanyahu’s career
On Tuesday night, Israelis went to sleep under the shadow of an American threat to wipe out Iranian civilisation, only to wake up in the middle of the night to receive the news that the man who made that threat, US President Donald Trump, had agreed to a ceasefire with the Islamic Republic.
After Trump's announcement, Iranian outlets published the 10 points on which, according to Iran, it agreed to the ceasefire.
Among other points that the US and Iran agreed to enter negotiations on, the reports said, are: the complete stoppage of hostilities between the countries; allowing Tehran to continue uranium enrichment; protection for Iran's allies; reparations for the damage suffered during the US-Israeli attacks; and the imposition of a fee for every ship transiting the Strait of Hormuz.
If those points become the basis for a permanent agreement between the US and Iran, it is fair to say that it might be the end of Benjamin Netanyahu’s political career.
This kind of conclusion to the war, which the Israeli prime minister, according to a recent report by the New York Times, initiated and almost single-handily dragged the US president into, will also hurt Netanyahu’s legacy.
If those 10 points are accepted by the US, Iran will come out of this war stronger than it was before.
This will contradict the entire notion on which Netanyahu launched this conflict on 28 February.
Iran as a regional power
At the start of the war, Netanyahu was clear: he wanted to topple the Iranian ruling establishment.
Later, as Iran endured the attacks without crumbling to US demands, the Israeli prime minister was less clear about the war’s goals.
However, as the conflict progressed and toppling Iran’s rulers had not materialised, Netanyahu at least wanted to crush the Islamic Republic and strip it of its status as a major force in the Middle East.
Netanyahu wanted Israel to become the agent through which the US manages the Middle East. That too had not yet materialised.
The Iranian ruling establishment is persevering and handling the negotiations with the US, and it also holds on to its ballistic missile capabilities and can restart its nuclear programme.
It is perhaps becoming the strongest regional power in the Middle East, as it took charge of the Strait of Hormuz, one the most important waterways of the world economy.
It is a complete disaster for Netanyahu, as he has portrayed Iran as the number one enemy of Israel and western hegemony.
Over the past 30 years, Netanyahu spoke about the existential danger Iran poses to his country and the world.
Now, after Netanyahu succeeded in dragging the US into helping him achieve his most precious goal, Iran is becoming a major power in the Middle East as a result of this war.
This is a very difficult moment for the Israeli prime minister, as it also put in danger another accomplishment attributed to Netanyahu.
The consequences of this latest war between Iran and Israel can threaten, in the long term, the Abraham Accords that Israel signed with several Arab states.
The main goal of the accords was to allow the Gulf Arab states to promote peace with Israel without dealing with the Palestinian question.
Those same states have suffered the most from this latest war, as they are now facing a stronger Iran that controls the waterway of the Gulf, if Iran's 10 points are accepted.
As Iran asserts control over the Strait of Hormuz, the Gulf Arab states will gradually depend on Iran's approval to ship their oil, gas and other commodities out of the region.
They also did not respond to the Iranian attacks on their soil, showing their weakness. Their alliance with the US did not help them.
Now, it seems that for the Gulf Arab states, a complete reliance on the US and Israel for their defence is at question, and the region could, very slowly, move away from American control and dependence.
Lebanon, another failure
Hezbollah and Lebanon represent another failure for Netanyahu, as both he and the army said the Lebanese armed movement had been crushed.
The Israeli public has not bought his line that Hamas was destroyed in the Gaza Strip and Iran floored by the 12-day war last June. But they did believe that Hezbollah had been defeated.
After Israel and Hezbollah signed a ceasefire agreement in November 2024, Netanyahu and the army sold the Israeli public a total victory over Hezbollah.
The Israeli public was told that the group was finished as a military organisation and no longer posed any danger to Israel.
Hezbollah’s top brass had been eliminated, its military capabilities dismantled, and the Lebanese had turned hostile to the armed group’s presence in the south of the country.
Israel violated the ceasefire with continued strikes across Lebanon without a response from Hezbollah, only strengthening the notion that its powers had been severely diminished.
When Hezbollah then attacked Israel after it killed Iran's Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, a spiritual figurehead for the organisation, it took Israelis by surprise - and not just the public.
The army, too, had massively underestimated Hezbollah’s power, as suggested by a leaked conversation between the head of Israel’s Northern Command and residents of the north.
In the weeks since the war began, Hezbollah has fired some 200 missiles towards Israeli targets every day, crippling Israel's northern region.
Now, as Iran demands that the ceasefire includes Lebanon, Netanyahu is afraid of another failure.
If Iran's demand is granted, it will solidify what the Iranian-led Axis of Resistance, which on top of Hezbollah includes the Houthis in Yemen and paramilitaries in Iraq. Combining ceasefires in Iran and Lebanon would grant the axis international recognition for the first time.
In Israel, this axis is called the Axis of Evil. Netanyahu will not be able to convince the Israeli public, and especially the northern residents, that he defeated Hezbollah again, when in reality he is compelled to end the war in Lebanon because of Iran.
Impossible situation
Netanyahu failed to topple the Iranian government despite convincing the world's number one superpower to join his war on Iran. He also failed to defeat Hezbollah, as both the armed group and Iran proved to be stronger than Israel deemed them to be.
This is an impossible situation for Netanyahu.
This week, a journalist for Haaretz wrote that Iran is Netanyahu’s Moby-Dick. Like Herman Melville's Ahab and the whale, the Israeli prime minister vowed to destroy Iran, but in the end, Iran could destroy him. It is a fitting analogy.
Netanyahu did not gain support in opinion polls conducted during the war, as had been expected by some, and an election is looming.
In most polls, his current coalition gets around 50 seats, much less than the required 61 needed to secure a majority and form a government.
A situation where Iran is stronger than ever and Hezbollah will receive guarantees for its security from Tehran - and maybe also from Pakistan and the US - is a situation in which Netanyahu will face anger even from his own right-wing voters.
Supporters of Netanyahu had described him as sent by God to change the Middle East in favour of Israel. Only his most loyal supporters might still hold this view.
Netanyahu will struggle to re-establish the bond of trust he built over the years with other sectors of Israeli society.
Right-wing voters who left Netanyahu will not return, as they will instead vote for one of Israel's centre-right, centre or centre-left parties.
A US-Iran agreement is not merely an internal political defeat for Netanyahu; it could amount to a crushing blow to his legacy, where Israel has the freedom to attack anywhere in the Middle East whenever it pleases.
But even after Trump's announcement, the Israeli military keeps attacking Lebanon, in what Iran says is a violation of the ceasefire agreement.
Iran has already threatened not to open the Strait of Hormuz because of Israeli aggression in Lebanon and the ceasefire seems fragile.
Netanyahu, for internal political reasons and to save his legacy, will do everything in his power to sabotage the ceasefire agreement and keep bombing Lebanon in the hope of dragging the US back to war.
It is a big risk for Netanyahu, who is already seen in the US as the one who lured the Trump administration into this war at the first place. But the Israeli prime minister is backed into a corner.
This may explain why on Thursday Netanyahu suggested he is open to direct negotiations with the Lebanese government for peace, seemingly as a result of US pressure.
Netanyahu will stop at nothing to preserve his legacy and his political future. He certainly can derail the negotiations and restart the US-Israeli war on Iran, so his legacy of brutal Israeli force in the Middle East remains intact.
This article was sourced from Middle East Eye.
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