Seyed Hossein Mousavian: Could the Islamabad talks end 48 years of hostility between the US and Iran?

After 40 days of intense military confrontation between Iran on one side and the United States and Israel on the other, the sudden announcement of a two-week ceasefire has raised a central question: what compelled the parties to pause the war at this stage? 

The ceasefire did not emerge from a single development, but from a combination of military, strategic, political, and economic realities that reshaped the calculations of the actors involved.

At the same time, the truce remains fragile, and its future will depend on several critical factors.

According to emerging reports, high-level negotiations could take place in Islamabad on Saturday, reportedly involving the speaker of Iranian parliament, Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, and US Vice President JD Vance.

If confirmed, such a meeting would represent the highest-level direct political engagements between the two sides after 48 years, and could help test whether the ceasefire will open the path to serious negotiations or merely serve as a temporary pause in hostilities.

Several major developments help explain why the ceasefire became possible.

Read more: Could the Islamabad talks end 48 years of hostility between the US and Iran?