Iran may opt to abide by US blockade in hopes of a deal, experts say

The US blockade on Iran is a “short-term tool” that could be tested by China and ultimately backfire on the US if energy markets lose their cautious faith in the Trump administration’s willingness to strike a peace deal with Iran.

Cutting off Iranian oil shipments should, in theory, lead to a spike in energy prices because Iran was the last country to send oil through the Strait of Hormuz, with exports reaching as high as 1.5 million barrels per day.

But Brent crude, the international benchmark, has been moving down since the US blockade went into effect on Monday. It was trading down 4.3 percent at $95.08 per barrel.

Diplomats and analysts tell Middle East Eye that the US blockade has, for now, been overshadowed by optimism that Iran and the US are committed to a two-week ceasefire and negotiations. 

For now, the US says its blockade is working. Maritime analysts parsing ship tracking data tell MEE that the assertion appears to be true.

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