War on Iran: Mediators push ceasefire extension as deal hopes fade
Mediators are seeking to extend the United States-Iran ceasefire, as hopes of reaching an agreement before Wednesday’s deadline faded on Sunday, sources have told Middle East Eye.
Senior regional officials said progress had been made in recent days on key issues, including Iran’s enriched uranium, the Strait of Hormuz and the future of Tehran’s allied armed groups across the region.
However, the mood shifted over the weekend, according to a senior Turkish official.
“There are several moving parts in the negotiations. Some are on track, but the gaps in others remain too wide to bridge,” the official said, speaking on condition of anonymity, like other sources in this report.
Another source familiar with the talks said Pakistani mediators were keen to extend Wednesday’s deadline, when the two-week ceasefire is due to expire, and remained hopeful that a resolution could be reached in the coming days.
Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan also backed the idea on Sunday, saying more time was needed.
But a Turkish security official warned that the risk of failure was real, and that a collapse in negotiations could trigger a new round of fighting on more brutal terms.
Before the mood among diplomats briefed on the talks shifted, the key issues under discussion included the transfer of Iran’s highly enriched uranium to Pakistan; a multi-year suspension of uranium enrichment; new arrangements for shipping through the Strait of Hormuz; the partial disarmament of allied armed groups in Iraq and Lebanon; and the immediate lifting of sanctions alongside the return of Iran’s frozen assets.
'There are several moving parts in the negotiations. Some are on track, but the gaps in others remain too wide to bridge'
- Senior Turkish official
One of the main sticking points is the duration of the enrichment suspension. Some sources said Iran had agreed to a five-year halt, while others put it at 12 years. The US had originally sought a 20-year moratorium.
After this period, Iran could agree to extend the moratorium in consultation with the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA).
Sources briefed on the negotiations said Tehran was also close to agreeing to transfer its entire stockpile of highly enriched uranium to Pakistan.
“Pakistan suggested the uranium be sent to a third country, a principle Iran accepted,” one source told MEE. “Iran proposed Pakistan as the destination, which Islamabad accepted.”
The proposed agreement - circulating in several capitals but not yet finalised - also includes provisions for Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz while imposing a tariff to be shared with Oman. It would not permit warships to use the strait, a move likely to rebuff plans by British and French navies to escort tankers through it.
Iran’s control of the strait would no longer be contested, with permission required for each transit.
“The Iranians do not believe they have been defeated because the regime remains in place, and they have concluded that their core conditions will be met,” one source said.
In return, all economic sanctions would be lifted, and frozen assets - estimated at $100bn across several countries - would be returned to Iran.
“Once the agreement is signed, all economic sanctions would be lifted,” the source added.
Iran’s ballistic missile programme would not be included in the deal.
Progress derailed
The sense of progress appeared to fade as tensions in the Strait of Hormuz rose again on Saturday.
Iran said it had closed the strait after reopening it on Thursday, citing the ongoing US naval blockade.
Iranian sources said the closure was intended to demonstrate control over maritime traffic and respond to the blockade, which they consider a violation of the ceasefire.
US President Donald Trump on Sunday accused Iran of violating the ceasefire by closing the strait, but confirmed that US representatives would travel to Islamabad for another round of negotiations on Monday.
In an interview with Fox News, he warned that America would “blow up the whole country” if Iran did not sign a peace deal.
“They’ll come down fast, they’ll come down easy and, if they don’t take the DEAL, it will be my Honor to do what has to be done, which should have been done to Iran, by other Presidents, for the last 47 years. IT’S TIME FOR THE IRAN KILLING MACHINE TO END!” he also said on Truth Social.
Meanwhile, Iran's Tasnim news agency reported that Tehran has not confirmed whether it will send a negotiating team to Pakistan "as long as there is a naval blockade" in place by the US.
If a deal is struck based on the current proposal, sources said it would be presented differently by each side.
Iran, which is believed to have enough low-enriched uranium for five years, would not view a full suspension of enrichment as a major concession, according to sources familiar with its position.
US negotiators would, however, present the halt as a breakthrough caused by the US military assault.
Iran has long insisted on its right to enrich uranium. The nuclear deal, signed in 2015 under the US administration of former president Barack Obama, allowed enrichment to continue under IAEA supervision.
However, shortly before the US and Israel launched their war on Iran in February, Oman’s foreign minister, Badr Albusaidi, said Tehran had agreed to dilute its existing stockpiles of enriched uranium to “the lowest level possible” and convert them into irreversible fuel.
Hezbollah and the Popular Mobilisation Forces
Sources said one of the most contentious elements of the current proposal concerns the future of Iran’s allied armed groups across the region.
The draft agreement would include the partial disbandment of the Iraqi Popular Mobilisation Forces (PMF), an influential paramilitary umbrella group, as well as the Lebanese Hezbollah. It could also pave the way for a peace deal, or some form of non-aggression pact, between Lebanon and Israel.
According to sources, while the PMF is largely under Iraqi government control, several smaller factions are directly commanded by Iranian officers. The proposal would require these groups to withdraw from areas near Iraq’s borders with neighbouring countries, particularly Kuwait and Jordan.
The sources added that the number of fighters in these groups could be capped at 15,000. The PMF is believed to have 238,000 fighters in its ranks.
'Hezbollah will retain weapons for self-defence, but the main weapons used against Israel will be dismantled'
- Informed source
In Lebanon, the agreement would include the disarmament of Hezbollah’s offensive weapons, alongside a broader political settlement with Israel, ranging from a non-aggression pact to possible recognition.
“Hezbollah will retain weapons for self-defence, but the main weapons used against Israel will be dismantled,” one informed source said.
He added that Nabih Berri, speaker of the Lebanese parliament and leader of the Amal Movement, a political ally of Hezbollah, had conveyed to the Americans that Hezbollah must retain arms for self-defence.
Iranian sources flatly denied this, insisting Tehran has repeatedly said it does not influence either the PMF or Hezbollah, and that Hezbollah’s decisions are its own.
Other senior sources said the proposed framework would never work in Lebanon.
“Do you think that two million people, one third the population of Lebanon, would take off their clothes and go naked in the streets?" one source said, referring to disarmament.
“Hezbollah is not a product of Iran. It was the result of an Israeli invasion. The Lebanese army can not protect Lebanon from Israel. Israel will not withdraw. They are currently mining the houses they have captured in the south. Hezbollah will never give up its offensive weapons,” the source added.
‘Packets of agreements’
Further uncertainty remains over how and when any agreement would be presented, if reached.
One source said there were “packets of agreements on different files”, but no consensus on how they would be announced.
Accounts also diverged on whether all centres of power in Iran have approved the proposal. One informed source said Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei had agreed.
Other sources said Khamenei had been so severely wounded in the attack that killed his father, Ayatollah Ali Khomeini, that he was unable to communicate, having lost a leg and suffered serious facial injuries.
There are also concerns that any deal could be derailed by Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.
Multiple sources said Israel had been compelled by Trump and Secretary of State Marco Rubio to halt its offensive in Lebanon last week.
A deal allowing Iran to suspend - rather than end - uranium enrichment, retain its ballistic missiles and remain in power would fall well short of Israel’s war aims.
Officials speaking to MEE acknowledged that Netanyahu would be dissatisfied.
There is a broad consensus in Israel that the war against Iran should continue. A ceasefire without a definitive victory is already hurting Netanyahu’s popularity in an election year.
There are also serious doubts over whether Mossad would abandon its longstanding efforts to pursue regime change in Iran.
Three Gulf states that sustained unprecedented damage to their oil and gas infrastructure, as well as their cities, could also view the deal in the proposed terms as an abandonment by Trump.
Although Gulf states initially lobbied against an attack on Iran, by the end of the conflict, the United Arab Emirates, Kuwait and Bahrain were urging Trump to finish the job. There are indications that the UAE and Bahrain may have taken part in some of the drone strikes, as a Chinese-made drone supplied to the UAE was shot down in Iran.
This article was sourced from Middle East Eye.
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