The US–Iran impasse: Who stands to lose more?

By the end of this month, US–Iran negotiations had reached a near stalemate, following rounds of talks in Islamabad and Muscat that failed to produce any meaningful breakthrough. At the same time, the conflict has been steadily morphing into something closer to a “cold war,” driven less by direct confrontation and more by sanctions and economic pressure. Trump’s decision to pursue a ceasefire, and then extend it, has effectively shifted the burden of the conflict; what was once carried primarily by Israel on the military front has increasingly been transferred to the economic arena, where Washington now bears the real weight of the war. Since then, Washington has doubled down on this approach, leaning heavily on a policy of “maximum […]