United States President Donald Trump speaks to the press before departing the White House for Florida on May 1, 2026, in Washington, DC. [Celal Güneş - Anadolu Agency]
Last Friday, 1st May, Slovakia’s prime minister, Robert Fico, commented to journalists that his assessment of global stability was reduced to a startlingly simple metric: the morning temperament of the American President. “Everything is under pressure, including oil prices, depending on how President Trump wakes up,” Fico remarked, noting that a “good mood” can send oil prices tumbling while a single erratic statement can send them surging. While Fico’s comments might sound like hyperbole, they describe a new and precarious “Barometer of Volatility” that now governs international security. For the Middle East—a region where the price of a barrel and the movement of a carrier strike group are often determined by whispers in Washington—this unpredictability is not just a market […]

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